The information below was quoted from the Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry – North Bay District Bulletin: Thursday, April 17, 2019 . 15:30 HRS
The Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry – North Bay District is advising area residents that a Flood Watch is in effect in the District until Tuesday, April 23, 2019
The Ministry is closely monitoring the weather and developing watershed conditions. Further updates will be issued as appropriate.
Definition of Flood Watch: flooding is imminent or occurring within specific watercourses and municipalities.
Description of Weather System
A Colorado low merging with a Texas low is forecast to move in tonight (Wednesday evening) bringing significant precipitation, mostly in the form of rain, across the District. The precipitation will begin Wednesday evening bringing up to 15 to 25 mm of rain. Rainfall is forecasted to persist into Friday with 15 to 30 mm forecast across the North Bay District. The system is forecast to die out on Saturday. Thunderstorms associated with this event are possible and may produce and additional 5 to 10 mm in isolated areas.
Totals across the North Bay District in the range of 20 to 50 mm are forecasted over the next three days with higher amounts possible in isolated areas.
Daytime high temperatures are forecasted in the 0 to 11 degrees Celsius range across the District over the next five days. Night-time low temperatures are largely forecasted to stay at or just below 0 degrees Celsius in the District.
Mid-April snow surveys show a continuing snowpack of between 16 cm to 93 cm and ranging from 33 to 221 mm of snow water equivalent. These values are above average to well above average for this time of year.
Description of Current Conditions
Water levels and stream flows across the North Bay District are elevated from ongoing spring snow melt and past precipitation events.
The impact of recent warm temperatures and rainfall have compacted the significant snow pack reducing its ability to absorb rainfall. The forecasted warm temperatures and precipitation are likely to further degrade the snowpack and river ice and continue to produce runoff and increase levels and flows. Warm temperatures in advance of Wednesday evening through Friday’s event will deteriorate snowpack and further prime it for release and melt.
Risks may include degradation of river ice and ice jam related flooding from increasing temperatures and flows, fast moving cold water with rapidly changing conditions, and flooding of low-lying areas with a history of flooding.
Current forecast track and precipitation amounts for the event beginning Wednesday evening are uncertain.
A close watch on local forecasts and conditions is recommended.
Surface Water Monitoring Centre public webpage www.ontario.ca/flooding
Environment Canada bulletins: www.weather.gc.ca
A close watch on local conditions and weather forecasts from Environment Canada is recommended.