The Ministry of Natural Resources – North Bay District, is advising area residents that a Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook bulletin is in effect in the district until Friday, May 2, 2025, at 4:00pm.

Residents in the North Bay District area should keep a close watch on conditions and exercise caution around lakes, rivers, and streams. Warmer spring temperatures combined with the rainfall forecasted on Friday and Saturday is likely to impact low lying areas which have a history of flooding. Shoreline and ice conditions are also expected to be impacted. Please alert and/or monitor any children and pets under your care to possible dangers and supervise their activities around waterbodies.

The ministry is closely monitoring the weather and developing watershed conditions. Further updates will be issued as appropriate.

TECHNICAL INFORMATION

Description of Weather System

A high-pressure system is expected to move across Northeast Region Friday evening through to Saturday, which is expected to bring moderate to significant rain in the range of 10 to 25mm with additional precipitation in areas that experience thunderstorms. 

The 5-day total precipitation accumulation ranges from 15 mm to 35 mm. Daytime temperatures are forecasted to range between 7-17°C, with nighttime temperatures ranging from below freezing up to 9°C.

Description of Current Conditions

Water levels across the district are within normal ranges for this time of year; however, flows in rivers, streams and creeks have increased with the recent spring weather and are expected to react accordingly to the forecasted rainfall.

Lakes and rivers in the northern reaches of the district are still frozen. Where snow and ice remain, shorelines and ice conditions are unstable.

Throughout most of the district the ground is saturated and has little capacity to absorb any moisture from runoff or rainfall. Warm temperatures and forecasted rain will accelerate snowmelt where there is snowpack remaining, increasing the amount of runoff reaching watercourses.

Significant flooding is not expected; however, rainfall, snowmelt and runoff could result in flooding in low-lying areas which have a history of flooding. A close watch of local weather forecasts, special weather statements and warning is recommended.

DEFINITIONS

• WATERSHED CONDITIONS STATEMENT – WATER SAFETY: indicates that high flows, melting ice or other factors could be dangerous for such users as boaters, anglers and swimmers but flooding is not expected.
• WATERSHED CONDITIONS STATEMENT – FLOOD OUTLOOK: gives early notice of the potential for flooding based on weather forecasts calling for heavy rain, snow melt, high winds or other conditions
• SHORELINE CONDITIONS STATEMENT – WATER SAFETY: indicates that along the Great Lakes shorelines high water, melting ice or other factors could be dangerous but flooding is not expected.
• SHORELINE CONDITIONS STATEMENT – FLOOD OUTLOOK: gives early notice of the potential for flooding along the Great Lakes shorelines based on weather and lake conditions, and water safety information.
• FLOOD WATCH: potential for flooding exists within specific watercourses and municipalities.
• FLOOD WARNING: flooding is imminent or occurring within specific watercourses and municipalities.

LEARN MORE

• Surface Water Monitoring Centre public webpage www.ontario.ca/page/surface- water-monitoring-centre
• Environment Canada bulletins: www. weather.gc.ca
• A close watch on local conditions and weather forecasts from Environment Canada is recommended.