The Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry – North Bay District, is advising area residents that a Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook has been issued for the district until Sunday, October 29, 2023. 

Residents in the North Bay District area should keep a close watch on conditions and exercise caution around rivers and streams. Please alert and monitor any children under your care to possible dangers and supervise their activities. 

The ministry is closely monitoring the weather and developing watershed conditions. Further updates will be issued as appropriate. 

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 TECHNICAL INFORMATION 

Description of Weather System 

A stationary frontal boundary is forecast to move across the Northeast Region from west of Sault Ste Marie to east of Earlton starting today (Wednesday) and intensifying by tomorrow (Thursday) ahead of a Colorado low which is expected to move to areas to the east of Lake Superior and centered around the Wawa district on Friday. A clearing trend with a high-pressure system is expected to set behind this exiting low pressure system starting on Saturday. 

Rainfall associated with the frontal boundary can bring 20 to 40 mm of cumulative rainfall (Wednesday and Thursday) over the next 48 hours. Cumulative 5-day total for areas bounded by Sault Ste Marie to Wawa in the west to North Bay and Earlton to the east might receive rainfall from 40 to 60 mm in the next 5 days. An additional 15 mm to 25 mm in local moderate thunderstorms is also possible in the next few days as the system passes through the region. 

Description of Current Conditions 

Flows and water levels are moderately elevated in North Bay Region due to recent rainfall in the area. The forecast rain, combined with isolated thunderstorms, is expected to produce significant amounts of localized runoff and elevate water levels. As a result, some 

areas may experience an increased risk of overland flow. Flooding in low-lying areas and areas with poor drainage is also possible. 

The development of thunderstorms is hard to predict, and there is high uncertainty about the location and intensity of storm cells that may develop. 

A close watch of local weather forecasts and weather alerts is recommended. 

This message will be in effect until (or updated before) Sunday, October 29th, 2023, at 10:30 a.m. 

DEFINITIONS 

• WATERSHED CONDITIONS STATEMENT – WATER SAFETY: indicates that high flows, melting ice or other factors could be dangerous for such users as boaters, anglers and swimmers but flooding is not expected. 
• WATERSHED CONDITIONS STATEMENT – FLOOD OUTLOOK: gives early notice of the potential for flooding based on weather forecasts calling for heavy rain, snow melt, high winds or other conditions. 
• SHORELINE CONDITIONS STATEMENT – WATER SAFETY: indicates that along the Great Lakes shorelines high water, melting ice or other factors could be dangerous but flooding is not expected. 

• SHORELINE CONDITIONS STATEMENT – FLOOD OUTLOOK: gives early notice of the potential for flooding along the Great Lakes shorelines based on weather and lake conditions, and water safety information. 

• FLOOD WATCH: potential for flooding exists within specific watercourses and municipalities 
• FLOOD WARNING: flooding is imminent or occurring within specific watercourses and municipalities. 

LEARN MORE 

• Surface Water Monitoring Centre public webpage
• Environment Canada bulletins 
• A close watch on local conditions and weather forecasts from Environment Canada is recommended.